Social Security Is Getting a 3.6% Raise in 2027 — But Medicare Hasn’t Sent Its Bill Yet

On October 14, 2026, the Social Security Administration announced that benefits will rise 3.6% in 2027. It is the largest cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in four years, and it reaches roughly 76 million Americans — retirees, people on disability, survivors, and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients.

That is genuinely good news. But if you are on Medicare, it is only half the story. The other half — the 2027 Medicare Part B premium, which for most people is deducted straight from the Social Security check — has not been announced yet. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) typically releases it in November, which means the number that decides how much of your raise you actually keep is probably a few weeks away.

At JKJ Enterprises, Medicare is our lane. So let us walk through what we know, what we do not know yet, and what you can do right now — especially since Medicare’s Annual Enrollment Period is already open. (This is educational information, not tax or financial advice — more on that at the end.)

What the 3.6% Actually Means in Dollars

According to Social Security, the average retired worker’s benefit goes from about $2,087.52 a month to about $2,162.67 — an increase of roughly $75 a month, or about $900 over the year.

Your own raise depends on your own benefit. Here is the simple math: multiply your current monthly benefit by 0.036.

• A $1,200 benefit grows by about $43 a month.
• A $1,800 benefit grows by about $65 a month.
• A $2,500 benefit grows by about $90 a month.

When you will see it: Most people will see the increase in their January 2027 payment. SSI recipients will see it in the payment dated December 31, 2026. Social Security mails COLA notices in December, and if you have a my Social Security account with paperless notices turned on, you can view your new amount online starting in late November.

One caution: the notice will show your new gross benefit and the Medicare deductions. Look at the net deposit — that is the number that pays your bills.

The Missing Piece: Your 2027 Part B Premium

The standard Part B premium in 2026 is $202.90 a month, with a $283 annual deductible. That premium jumped nearly 10% this year, which is why so many people felt their 2026 raise disappear.

For 2027, the Medicare Trustees’ projection is about $209.50 a month — an increase of roughly $6.60 — with the deductible projected around $292. We want to be very clear: those are projections, not the official numbers. CMS can land above or below them, and the official 2027 premium, deductible, and income-related surcharge brackets are expected in mid-November.

If the projection holds, here is how the math works for the average retiree:

• COLA increase: about +$75 a month
• Part B premium increase: about −$6.60 a month
• Net increase: roughly +$68 a month

That is a much better trade than last year, when a larger premium jump ate a bigger share of the raise. But until CMS publishes the real number, treat that as an estimate — and do not spend the whole raise in your head just yet.

What about the $90 Medicare rebate? Many Original Medicare enrollees received a one-time $90 payment in October to offset part of a premium. It was a one-time payment — it does not lower your 2027 premium, and it did not go to people in Medicare Advantage plans, people paying income-related surcharges (IRMAA), or people whose premiums are paid by Medicaid. If you did receive it, it is not a recurring increase.

The “Hold Harmless” Rule — and Who It Does Not Cover

There is a protection in the law (often called “hold harmless”) that says, for most people whose Part B premium is deducted from their Social Security check, the premium increase cannot be larger than their dollar COLA increase. In plain English: your net check should not go down because Medicare went up.

This matters most for people with smaller benefits. Someone receiving $150 a month in Social Security gets a raise of only about $5.40 — less than the projected $6.60 premium increase. Hold harmless keeps that person’s net check from shrinking.

But hold harmless does not protect everyone. You generally pay the full premium increase if you:

• Are new to Medicare in 2027 (turning 65 or newly enrolled)
• Pay an income-related surcharge (IRMAA) because of higher income
• Do not have your premium deducted from a Social Security check (for example, you pay Medicare directly or have not started Social Security yet)
• Have your premium paid by your state through Medicaid (in that case the state absorbs the increase, not you)

If you are turning 65 or starting Medicare next year, plan on the full 2027 premium from day one.

IRMAA: The Surcharge Based on Your 2025 Taxes

Higher-income beneficiaries pay more for Part B and Part D through IRMAA. Your 2027 IRMAA is based on your 2025 tax return — a two-year lookback. Early projections put the first 2027 bracket at roughly $112,000 for single filers and $224,000 for married couples filing jointly, but the official brackets come out with the premium announcement in November.

IRMAA works like a cliff: go over a bracket by one dollar and you pay that tier’s surcharge for the whole year. If your income dropped since 2025 because of a qualifying “life-changing event” — retirement, a work stoppage, the death of a spouse, divorce, or similar — you can ask Social Security to use your newer income by filing Form SSA-44. Nobody files it for you. You have to ask.

And remember: the tax year happening right now — 2026 — is the one that will set your 2028 premiums. A large one-time event this year, like a home sale, a big IRA withdrawal, or a Roth conversion, can show up as a Medicare surcharge two years from now.

Other 2027 Numbers Worth Knowing

The COLA announcement came with several other changes:

• SSI maximum: $1,029 a month for an individual and $1,544 for a couple.
• Working while collecting (earnings test): If you are under full retirement age all year, Social Security withholds $1 for every $2 you earn above $25,560. In the year you reach full retirement age, the limit is $67,920, with $1 withheld for every $3 above it — and only for earnings before the month you reach full retirement age. Once you reach full retirement age, there is no limit. Withheld benefits are not lost; your benefit is recalculated upward later.
• Social Security taxable wage maximum: rises to $192,300 (up from $184,500). This affects people who are still working with higher earnings.
• Federal retirees: Retirees under the older Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) receive the full 3.6%. Retirees under the Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS) receive 2.6% because of how their formula works.

Don’t Forget Taxes on Your Benefits

A bigger check can mean a bigger tax bill. Up to 85% of your Social Security benefit can be federally taxable once your “combined income” — your other income, plus tax-free interest, plus half your Social Security — crosses $25,000 (single) or $32,000 (married filing jointly). Those lines have never been adjusted for inflation, so every COLA nudges more retirees over them.

The senior deduction created in 2025 — up to $6,000 per person age 65 and older — helps many people, but it phases out at higher incomes and does not change those thresholds. If you are close to a line, a conversation with a tax professional before December 31 can be worth it.

Why This Matters During Annual Enrollment

Here is the timing that trips people up. Medicare’s Annual Enrollment Period runs October 15 through December 7. It is open right now. The official Part B premium will probably be announced in the middle of it.

The good news is that you do not need to wait for that announcement to review your coverage. The Part B premium is the same whether you have Original Medicare or a Medicare Advantage plan — the bigger differences between plans are in plan premiums, copays, drug coverage, and networks, and those 2027 details are already published.

This fall, it is worth checking:

• Your Annual Notice of Change. Your current plan mailed it in September. It shows what is changing in 2027.
• Your prescriptions. Formularies and drug tiers change every year. A plan that worked in 2026 may cost more in 2027.
• Your doctors. Confirm they are still in-network for 2027.
• Part B giveback plans. Some Medicare Advantage plans in certain areas reduce your Part B premium. They are not available everywhere and are not right for everyone, but if a higher premium worries you, it is worth asking about.
• Extra Help and Medicare Savings Programs. If your income and assets are limited, these programs can pay your Part B premium and lower your drug costs. Having your Part B premium paid can be worth more than $2,400 a year — far more than the COLA itself. Do not decide on your own that you do not qualify; let the application decide.

Five Things to Do Before Year-End

1. Do the COLA math. Multiply your current benefit by 0.036. That is your approximate gross raise.

2. Pencil in the Part B estimate — then update it. Subtract about $6.60 for now. When CMS announces the official premium in November, replace the estimate with the real number.

3. Check whether hold harmless protects you. If you are new to Medicare, pay IRMAA, or pay Medicare directly, budget for the full premium increase.

4. Review your plan before December 7. Look at drugs, doctors, and total costs, not just the premium.

5. Look at your 2026 income now. A home sale, large IRA withdrawal, or Roth conversion this year can affect your 2028 Medicare premiums. Talk to a tax professional before the year closes.

Our Take at JKJ Enterprises

A 3.6% raise is real money, and after last year’s large Part B jump, most retirees will likely keep more of this one. But the final number is not in yet. Medicare is expected to publish it next month, and for people who are new to Medicare, pay IRMAA, or pay their premium directly, that announcement matters a lot.

The most useful move is to stay deliberate: estimate your raise, wait for the official premium before you count it as spent, and use Annual Enrollment to make sure your 2027 plan still fits your doctors, prescriptions, and budget. We will update you when CMS releases the official 2027 numbers.

Let’s Review Your 2027 Coverage

Whether you are trying to figure out how much of your raise you will keep, wondering whether IRMAA applies to you, or reviewing your plan during Annual Enrollment, you do not have to sort it out alone. Call JKJ Enterprises at (323) 677-4660, email [email protected], or book a free, no-pressure review at book.jkjenterprises.com/team/jkjent.

Disclaimer: JKJ Enterprises is a licensed Medicare and life insurance agency (CA License #0F12966). This article is for general educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, or financial advice. Figures reflect publicly reported information as of October 19, 2026. The 2027 Medicare Part B premium, deductible, and IRMAA brackets cited here are projections until CMS announces official amounts. We do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 6 organizations which offer [number of] products in your area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-MEDICARE, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Not connected with or endorsed by the United States government or the federal Medicare program.